Obama and Trump both bent demographic trends to win. Can Trump repeat in 2020? The past three presidential elections have been head-snapping for many Americans: a sharp turn into what many people believed was the future of electoral politics with the elections of Barack Obama and an even sharper reversal with the victory of Donald Trump. People are still making sense of it all. The coming midterm elections — consequential as they could be, almost no matter the outcome — will not be good indicators of what might happen in 2020. Three recent presidents have seen their parties suffer big losses in midterm elections — 1982, 1994 and 2010 — yet found ways to win reelection two years later. Such could be the case for Trump, even if Republicans lose control of the House in November. But of the past three presidential elections, which is the best guide to the 2020 election? Demographer William H. Frey offers the conclusion that neither the Obama victories nor the Trump shocker shoul...
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